Zelenskyy Told Pres Trump to Give Patriot Missiles or He Will Blow Up Russian Diesel Production?

The President of Ukraine, who hasn’t allowed an election since 2019, in a conversation with President Trump recently said something about Russian diesel production, Ukrainian attacks on it and his willingness to stop blowing up Russian diesel infrastructure if he is provided many of the dwindled stock of U.S. Patriot missiles. The United States has only 750-850 remaining, and years are required to build more.

President Trump’s reply card might be to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports in order to lower the price U.S. consumers and truck drivers pay at the pump. That would bring the price of gasoline down by 50 cents per gallon if done by the weekend. Plainly remaining European sanctions would keep the cost of fossil fuel high for Americans. The Ukraine war is a hidden tariff on fuel prices for Americans that European leaders generally insist on.

I asked AI if the ban on Russian oil and gas is equivalent to the Arab oil embargo Americans experienced in 1973-74. It said that combined with the Iran conflict the situation is far worse.

AI– Gary– Is the reduction in oil for the world equivalent to the Arab oil embargo

AI-The current global oil supply reduction is significantly larger in scale and volume than the 1973 Arab oil embargo. [1, 2]

Scale Comparison

• 1973 Embargo: Created a global shortfall of about 4.5 million barrels per day, which accounted for roughly 7% of the world’s oil supply at that time. [1]
• Current Crisis: Ongoing disruptions—driven by conflicts restricting transit through critical checkpoints like the Strait of Hormuz—threaten or remove upwards of 12 million to over 20 million barrels per day, impacting roughly 11.5% to 20% of global consumption. [1, 2]

Key Differences

• Volume: Today’s potential and active disruptions affect a volume of daily oil nearly four times larger than the shortage experienced during the 1973 crisis. [1]
• Broader Impacts: The current situation also heavily impacts non-oil supplies, such as a substantial portion of the world’s fertilizer transit, compounding economic stress. [1]
• Market Response: While the 1973 embargo led to extreme physical shortages like long gas lines and strict rationing in Western nations, the current shock has driven severe price surges (such as Brent crude climbing over $100 per barrel) with more muted direct consumer rationing in most major economies. [1, 2, 3]

Gary– If sanctions were lifted on Russian oil exports by the United States how would that affect the United States’ price of oil and gas?

AI– If the United States were to unilaterally lift its sanctions on Russian oil exports, it would trigger a cascade of shifts in global and domestic energy markets. Because oil is a globally traded commodity, any change in how Russian crude flows directly alters the prices American consumers pay at the pump. [1]

Here is how lifting the sanctions would affect U.S. oil and gasoline prices:

➡️ Direct Impact on U.S. Oil Prices (WTI and Brent)

• Immediate Price Decrease: Lifting sanctions would immediately lower global oil benchmarks, including Brent crude and the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Allowing Russian oil to flow seamlessly into Western supply chains reduces the geopolitical risk premium that traders currently bake into the price. [1, 2, 3, 4]
• Reintroducing Stranded Supply: Lifting restrictions provides legal clarity for Western insurers, shipping fleets, and banks to handle Russian barrels. This frees up logistically constrained oil (such as oil stranded at sea or caught in complex “shadow fleets”), raising the global pool of available crude and easing supply crunches. [1, 2, 3]
• Normalizing Global Trade Routes: Right now, Russia diverts its oil over massive distances to buyers in Asia (primarily India and China) at a discount. Removing U.S. sanctions allows for shorter, more efficient shipping routes, lowering global transit costs and ultimately deflating the overall cost of oil. [1, 2, 3]

➡️ Direct Impact on U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Prices

• Lower Costs at the Pump: Because retail gasoline prices closely track global crude oil costs, a drop in crude prices would pass directly to U.S. consumers, lowering the price per gallon.
• Relief for Diesel and Distillates: Russian exports have historically been heavily weighted toward heavy crudes and refined products like diesel. Reopening Western markets to Russian petroleum would significantly ease tight global distillate supplies, helping lower the cost of diesel used in commercial shipping and trucking, which in turn reduces inflationary pressures on goods. [1]

⚠️ Critical Constraints on Price Relief

While prices would drop, the decline would be limited by a few major realities:

• European Sanctions Remain: Even if the U.S. lifts its restrictions, European Union and British embargoes might stay in place. Because Europe was historically the primary buyer of Russian oil, localized price relief would be staggered unless Western allies move in lockstep.
• OPEC+ Countermeasures: If global prices drop too far or too fast, the OPEC+ alliance (of which Russia is a leading member) would likely cut its own production to artificially tighten supply and defend a higher floor price for oil.
• Domestic Refining Limitations: U.S. refineries are heavily optimized to run specific blends of crude. Reintroducing Russian crude would require time to reintegrate into complex domestic refinery schedules before yielding maximum gasoline output. [1, 2]

Gary- How much do you estimate the price of gas at the pump would drop by November 7th of this year if sanctions were lifted this weekend?

AI- If U.S. sanctions on Russian oil were unilaterally lifted this weekend, retail gas prices at the pump would likely drop by an estimated $0.30 to $0.55 per gallon by November 7th.

Assuming the baseline national average sits around $4.20 to $4.45 per gallon, this would bring the pump price down closer to the $3.80 to $3.95 range by early November.

This estimate and its timeline rely on three key market factors:

💡 1. The Immediate Crude “De-escalation” Discount

Every $10 change in the price of a barrel of crude oil translates to roughly a $0.25 change in the price of a gallon of gasoline. Lifting U.S. sanctions would immediately puncture the “geopolitical risk premium” currently propping Brent and WTI crude near the $95–$100 mark. Global crude prices would likely slide by $12 to $20 a barrel as legal pathways re-open for Western shipping, insurance, and banking networks to move Russian barrels directly. This chunk of crude relief account for a $0.30 to $0.50 drop at the pump.

🗓 2. The 4-to-6 Week Transmission Lag

Because you specified November 7th—roughly six weeks from this weekend—the timeline perfectly matches the historical lag of the energy supply chain. When crude oil prices drop on Wall Street, it takes time for that cheaper oil to be purchased, shipped to refineries, processed into gasoline, and distributed to local stations. Stations also tend to lower their prices slowly (“rockets and feathers” effect) as they flush out inventory they bought at higher prices. By early November, the full impact of a late-September policy shift would finally be visible to consumers.

⚠️ 3. The Chilling Effect of Remaining Sanctions

The reason the price wouldn’t drop even further (back to early 2026 sub-$3.00 levels) is that European Union and UK embargoes would almost certainly remain active. Since the U.S. historically imported very little Russian crude directly, the relief relies on global market sentiment. Furthermore, OPEC+ would likely respond to a rapid price drop by cutting its own production targets to artificially restrict supply and defend a price floor, capping the maximum relief American drivers see at the pump.

Would you like to see how this price drop might vary by region (such as the West Coast vs. the Gulf Coast), or would you prefer to look at the impact this move would have on diesel and commercial transport costs?